Projected burden of disease for Salmonella infection due to increased temperature in Australian temperate and subtropical regions.

OBJECTIVE This study aimed to project the future disability burden of Salmonella infection associated with increased temperature in future in temperate and subtropical regions of Australia in order to provide recommendations for public health policy to respond to climate change. METHODS Years Lost due to Disabilities (YLDs) were used as the measure of the burden of disease in this study. Regions in temperate and subtropical Australia were selected for this study. Future temperature change scenarios in the study were based on Australian projections, developed by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO). YLDs for Salmonella infection in 2000 were calculated as the baseline data. YLDs for Salmonella infection in 2030 and 2050 under future temperature change scenarios were projected based on the quantitative relationship between temperature and disease examined in previously published regression models. Future demographic change was also considered in this analysis. RESULTS Compared with the YLDs in 2000, increasing temperature and demographic changes may lead to a 9%-48% increase in the YLDs for Salmonella infection by 2030 and a 31%-87% increase by 2050 in the temperate region, and a 51%-100% increase by 2030 and an 87%-143% increase by 2050 in the subtropical region, if other factors remain constant. CONCLUSION Temperature-related health burden of Salmonella infection in Australia may increase in the future due to change in climate and demography in the absence of effective public health interventions. Relevant public health strategies should be developed at an early stage to prevent and reduce the health burden of climate change.